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Experimental probability and expected frequencyIB MYP Maths Extended: Mind map

Relative frequency
Expected frequency

Experimental probability

Estimating from trials

relative frequencyexpected numbermore trials
More trials
Theory vs experiment
Exam tips

Exam questions on Experimental probability and expected frequency

  1. A spinner at a school in Kuala Lumpur has four equal sections, one of which is red. It is spun 200 times and lands on red 46 times.
    Work out the theoretical probability of red and comment on whether the spinner appears to be fair.2 marks
  2. A factory in Penang tests 400 light bulbs from one production line. Of these, 12 are faulty.
    Suggest how the factory could get a more reliable estimate of the probability that a bulb is faulty, and explain why this works.2 marks
  3. A student in Santiago flips a drawing pin 150 times and it lands point up 63 times. Another student flips the same pin 1000 times and it lands point up 412 times.
    Work out the relative frequency of 'point up' for each student and state, with a reason, which is more reliable.3 marks
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Written by the Exaim team, led by Shaun Daswani (Head of Upper Secondary, Improve ME Institute; MSc Financial Mathematics, Imperial College London; BSc, UCL) and Jason Daswani (operational lead, Improve ME Institute; LSE).