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The Central Limit TheoremEdexcel A-Level Further Maths: Flashcards

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State the Central Limit Theorem.

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State the Central Limit Theorem.
For a population with mean μ\mu and variance σ2\sigma^2, for large nn the sample mean is approximately N(μ,σ2n)\mathrm{N}\left(\mu,\frac{\sigma^2}{n}\right).
Does the CLT need the population to be normal?
No. It applies to any population with a mean and variance.
What is the standard deviation of the sample mean?
σn\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt n}
What is the variance of the sample mean?
σ2n\frac{\sigma^2}{n}
What sample size is usually considered large?
About 3030 or more.
Give μ\mu and σ2\sigma^2 for Po(λ)\mathrm{Po}(\lambda).
μ=λ\mu=\lambda and σ2=λ\sigma^2=\lambda
Give μ\mu and σ2\sigma^2 for B(n,p)\mathrm{B}(n,p).
μ=np\mu=np and σ2=np(1−p)\sigma^2=np(1-p)
Give μ\mu and σ2\sigma^2 for Geo(p)\mathrm{Geo}(p).
μ=1p\mu=\frac1p and σ2=1−pp2\sigma^2=\frac{1-p}{p^2}
Give μ\mu and σ2\sigma^2 for NB(r,p)\mathrm{NB}(r,p).
μ=rp\mu=\frac rp and σ2=r(1−p)p2\sigma^2=\frac{r(1-p)}{p^2}
How do you standardise a sample mean?
z=xˉ−μσ/nz=\frac{\bar{x}-\mu}{\sigma/\sqrt n}
X∼Po(4)X\sim\mathrm{Po}(4), n=50n=50. What is the distribution of Xˉ\bar{X}?
N(4,0.08)\mathrm{N}(4,0.08)
How does P(∣Xˉ−μ∣<a)\mathrm{P}(|\bar{X}-\mu|<a) change as nn increases?
It increases, because the standard deviation σn\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt n} decreases.
How do you justify using the CLT in an exam answer?
The sample size is large, so the sample mean is approximately normal even though the population is not.

Exam questions on The Central Limit Theorem

  1. The number of customers XX arriving at a small shop in an hour has a Poisson distribution with mean 44. The manager records the number of arrivals in each of 5050 randomly chosen hours and calculates the sample mean Xˉ\bar{X}.
    Find the probability that the sample mean lies between 3.83.8 and 4.34.3.2 marks
  2. A box contains 1212 pens, each of which is faulty with probability 0.250.25, independently of the others. Let XX be the number of faulty pens in a randomly chosen box. A random sample of 4040 boxes is taken and Xˉ\bar{X} is the mean number of faulty pens per box in the sample.
    Find P(Xˉ>3.3)\mathrm{P}(\bar{X}>3.3).2 marks
  3. At a fair, the number of tickets XX a visitor buys up to and including the first prize-winning ticket has a geometric distribution with parameter p=0.2p=0.2. A random sample of 6060 visitors is taken, and Xˉ\bar{X} is the mean number of tickets bought up to and including the first prize.
    Explain why Xˉ\bar{X} can be assumed to have a normal distribution, and state its approximate distribution.3 marks
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Written by the Exaim team, led by Shaun Daswani (Head of Upper Secondary, Improve ME Institute; MSc Financial Mathematics, Imperial College London; BSc, UCL) and Jason Daswani (operational lead, Improve ME Institute; LSE).