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Language of hypothesis testingAQA A-Level Maths: Flashcards

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What is the null hypothesis?

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What is the null hypothesis?
The hypothesis assumed true when carrying out the test; it gives a single value, such as H0:p=0.6H_0:p=0.6.
What is the alternative hypothesis?
What you accept if there is sufficient evidence against H0H_0, such as H1:p<0.6H_1:p<0.6 or H1:p≠0.6H_1:p\ne0.6.
When is a test 1-tail?
When H1H_1 has a direction, p<p0p<p_0 or p>p0p>p_0.
When is a test 2-tail?
When H1H_1 says only that the parameter has changed: H1:p≠p0H_1:p\ne p_0.
What is a test statistic?
The value from the sample used to decide, for a binomial test the number of successes XX.
What is the significance level?
The probability of rejecting H0H_0 when H0H_0 is true.
What is the critical region?
The values of the test statistic that lead to rejecting H0H_0.
What is the critical value?
The boundary of the critical region.
What is the acceptance region?
The values of the test statistic for which H0H_0 is not rejected.
What is a pp-value?
The probability, assuming H0H_0 is true, of a result at least as extreme as the one observed.
Decision rule using the pp-value?
Reject H0H_0 if the pp-value ≤\le the significance level.
How do you split 5% in a 2-tail test?
At most 2.5%2.5\% in each tail.
What is the actual significance level?
The probability of the critical region when H0H_0 is true; it is often less than the stated level for discrete data.
Upper tail probability P(X≥k)P(X\ge k)?
1−P(X≤k−1)1-P(X\le k-1).

Exam questions on Language of hypothesis testing

  1. A seed company claims that 60% of its seeds germinate. A gardener suspects that the true percentage is lower. She plants 20 seeds and records the number XX that germinate. She will test her suspicion at the 5% significance level, assuming that X∼B(20,p)X\sim B(20,p), where pp is the probability that a seed germinates. For reference, P(X≤7)=0.0210P(X\le7)=0.0210 and P(X≤8)=0.0565P(X\le8)=0.0565 when p=0.6p=0.6.
    State the critical value of the test and write down the acceptance region.2 marks
  2. A spinner has four equal-looking sections, one of which is red. The manufacturer says that the probability of the spinner landing on red is 0.250.25. A teacher thinks the spinner may be biased, in either direction. She spins it 20 times and records the number YY of reds, using Y∼B(20,p)Y\sim B(20,p) and a 10% significance level. When p=0.25p=0.25: P(Y≤1)=0.0243P(Y\le1)=0.0243, P(Y≤2)=0.0913P(Y\le2)=0.0913, P(Y≥8)=0.1018P(Y\ge8)=0.1018 and P(Y≥9)=0.0409P(Y\ge9)=0.0409.
    The teacher says: "A 10% significance level means there is a 10% chance that the spinner is biased." Explain why this is incorrect.2 marks
  3. A café owner believes that 30% of customers order a cold drink. She runs an advert that is intended to increase this proportion. Afterwards she picks 15 customers at random and finds that 9 of them order a cold drink. Let XX be the number of cold drinks ordered by 15 customers, and test at the 5% significance level whether the proportion has increased.
    Write down the null and alternative hypotheses, and state the distribution of XX if the null hypothesis is true.3 marks
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Written by the Exaim team, led by Shaun Daswani (Head of Upper Secondary, Improve ME Institute; MSc Financial Mathematics, Imperial College London; BSc, UCL) and Jason Daswani (operational lead, Improve ME Institute; LSE).